MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...NWRN PA...WRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 090729Z - 090930Z
   
   AN IMPRESSIVE GUST FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE EWD ACROSS NWRN
   OH...SWRN ONTARIO AND WRN LAKE ERIE...SUPPORTED BY STRONG PRESSURE
   RISES.
   
   STORMS WITH HAIL ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER SERN
   MI/NWRN OH WELL BEHIND THE GUST FRONT. AMPLE INSTABILITY EXISTS
   ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...SO SPORADIC LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH ANY STORMS. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHETHER NEW DEVELOPMENT
   WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE GUST FRONT...AND WHETHER
   THE SPEED WILL DECREASE WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A BETTER LARGE SCALE
   WIND THREAT RATHER THAN CONTINUING TO OUTRUN DEVELOPING CONVECTION.
   
   GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW MAY BE
   ENOUGH FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK AND MAY
   HAMPER ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/09/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...
   
   LAT...LON   41228453 41908344 42348271 42858204 43168137 43547759
               43337675 42947658 41957690 41357753 41277918 41168131
               41018267 40998310 41228453