MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0924 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME N-CENTRAL KS...ERN NEB...WRN
   IA...EXTREME SERN SD.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 398...
   
   VALID 300224Z - 300400Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 398 CONTINUES.
   
   QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED NEAR GLD-LNK-ALO LINE...AS
   EARLIER TWO-TIERED BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING. 
   ISOLATED CELL THAT HAD GONE UP NEAR LNK BEFORE 00Z HAS DISSIPATED. 
   CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR FRONTAL
   SEGMENT...AND THEREFORE DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS...APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING STEADILY WITH TIME AS DIABATIC
   COOLING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS MLCINH.  ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD FROM KS
   STILL MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND SVR GUSTS ACROSS AREAS BETWEEN
   HSI-BIE.  DAMAGING GUST WAS REPORTED IN THAYER COUNTY AT 150Z.  THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN  SFC-BASED ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IF INTERNAL STORM
   DYNAMICS ARE FORCING ASCENT THROUGH AMBIENT CINH LAYER. 
   HOWEVER...THAT CINH WILL INCREASE WITH TIME....CAUSING EFFECTIVE
   INFLOW PARCELS TO BE EITHER CAPPED STRONGLY OR ROOTED ABOVE BOUNDARY
   LAYER.  
   
   MEANWHILE...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING N OF NRN SFC FRONTAL
   SEGMENT...BETWEEN BVN-OFK AND NW OF WW.  THIS ACTIVITY...NEAR ERN
   BRANCH OF 45-50 KT LLJ...MAY BE START OF BROADER PLUME OF CONVECTION
   THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER NERN NEB AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
   PORTIONS SERN SD/NWRN IA/SRN MN OVERNIGHT.  ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THETAE ABOVE SFC..STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   PER OAX SOUNDING...FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   TO LFC.  THOSE AREAS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...
   
   LAT...LON   41589477 39829671 39839833 40539839 42229816 43029719
               43269605 41589477