MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0847 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NY AND PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 397...399...
   
   VALID 300147Z - 300245Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   397...399...CONTINUES.
   
   MCS WILL LIKELY PROGRESS EAST OF WW 397 QUICKLY...AND MAY BE CLEARED
   THEREAFTER /PRIOR TO 03Z EXPIRATION. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS...THREAT OF
   DMGG WINDS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF WW 399.
   
   A SMALLER SCALE CIRCULATION/MCV CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBTLE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT...IN COMBINATION WITH A LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
   THAT BOLSTERED ACTIVITY NORTH OF AN AREA OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE/AN
   IMPLIED STATIONARY BOUNDARY/ THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ORIENTED ACROSS NRN
   OH INTO WRN NY. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THIS BOUNDARY
   HAS SAGGED SWD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...CENTERED ROUGHLY FROM CNTRL
   NY AND ACROSS NWRN PA AS OF 0130Z. 00Z BUF/PIT SOUNDINGS REFLECT THE
   MAINTENANCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.5-7.5 C/KM / FARTHER
   EWD...WITH THE BUF SOUNDING SUGGESTING MINIMAL CINH BELOW 850 MB.
   ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT LOOSELY ORGANIZED...THIS WOULD
   SUGGEST THAT BETWEEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE COLD POOL VECTORED WITH
   THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM...CONTINUED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM OF
   STRONG TO SEVERE WIND SPEEDS THAT WILL REACH THE SURFACE SEEMS
   PROBABLE AS IT TRAVERSES THE NRN AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS
   SRN NY/NRN PA.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/30/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   LAT...LON   40678011 41048014 41408053 41627966 42297964 42997893
               43377903 43407726 43397671 43737612 43707575 42447586
               42067620 41877686 41167667 40797746 40697772 40678011