MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 241915Z - 242045Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO
   CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. AS CELLS INITIATE...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
   WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. A
   TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   A DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX AND IS STARTING TO
   ADVANCE MORE QUICKLY EWD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS
   JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS SWD TO NEAR SAN
   ANGELO. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS NOW GONE ACROSS THE MCD AREA AND
   STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS CONVERGENCE
   INCREASES ALONG THE DRYLINE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY
   IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. IN
   ADDITION...PROFILER DATA SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 40
   KT. THE SHEAR SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE AS A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET
   MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MAKING CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE A THREAT
   FOR VERY LARGE HAIL OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. IN
   ADDITION...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
   ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
   THREAT POSSIBLE AS WELL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   33489878 33289954 32670021 32070059 31440101 30860136
               30390120 30070082 30059997 30329859 31449784 32769769
               33489878