MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NRN IL/IND/OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 241811Z - 241945Z
   
   AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
   AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
   FRONT. THE NEED FOR ONE OR MORE SEVERE TSTM WATCHES REMAINS UNCLEAR
   ATTM...WITH THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE BY 20Z AROUND 40
   PERCENT.
   
   INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AS TCU/SMALL CB
   HAVE DEEPENED ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM
   E-CNTRL IOWA ACROSS NRN IL/IND/OH. DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE...OPERATIONAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
   ADAMANT THAT TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   ROBUST HEATING WILL CONTINUE S OF THE FRONTAL AXIS...RESULTING IN A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. EVEN
   WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW...20 TO 30 KT WLYS AT 3 TO 6 KM AGL SAMPLED
   IN WINCHESTER IL AND SLATER IA PROFILERS WILL BE MARGINALLY
   SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. OVERALL SETUP SHOULD YIELD
   ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND REPORTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...ARX...
   DMX...
   
   LAT...LON   41259132 42419228 42699220 42709188 42339108 42069020
               41418881 41218683 41278435 41518093 41258086 40858121
               40678170 40428262 40228459 40308807 40829043 41259132