MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0924
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...NRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352...
   
   VALID 241655Z - 241800Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352
   CONTINUES.
   
   VALID PORTION OF WW 352 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. WITH SEVERE
   THREAT LIKELY PERSISTING...THE PROBABILITY OF A WW REPLACEMENT IS 80
   PERCENT.
   
   A RECENT INCREASE IN REGENERATIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
   ACROSS PARTS OF S-CNTRL KY INTO FAR NRN MIDDLE TN. LOW-LEVEL WARM
   THETA-E ADVECTION ATOP A WEST-EAST ORIENTED CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW...COUPLED WITH AN MCV OVER WRN KY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
   IN TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTED BY LATEST
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. AIR MASS ACROSS MIDDLE AND ERN
   TN WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT AND BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
   REACHING 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. STRONG AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W/SWLY
   LOW/MID-LEVEL PROFILES SAMPLED IN AREA VWP DATA WILL SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS PRIMARILY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH A CLUSTER CONVECTIVE MODE APPEARS MOST
   PROBABLE GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO THE
   INITIATING BOUNDARY...OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY DEVELOP
   WITH A BRIEF TORNADO BEING POSSIBLE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
   
   LAT...LON   36398701 36908650 37248529 37338337 37328266 36518217
               36238228 35998266 35888415 35898652 36148701 36398701