MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...VA AND NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354...
   
   VALID 241615Z - 241745Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354
   CONTINUES.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT ONGOING IN THE ERN PART OF WW 354 WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP EWD INTO SE VA AND NRN NC THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND
   HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WW ISSUANCE WILL
   PROBABLY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN WRN VA IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL
   SUPPORT THE CONVECTION EWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO AN INCREASINGLY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN SE VA AND NE
   NC IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES IN THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BETWEEN 7.5
   AND 8.0 C/KM ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS
   SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPING STORMS MAY HAVE AN INCREASING WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED IF A PERSISTENT
   LINE-SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...
   
   LAT...LON   37647972 37048077 35958035 35647875 35377712 35997607
               36797598 37657796 37647972