MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0610 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SWRN MO...SERN KS...NWRN AR...NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 325...
   
   VALID 222310Z - 230015Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 325 CONTINUES.
   
   AT 2245-23Z...REGIONAL AND HI-RES RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A CLUSTER OF HP
   SUPERCELLS MOVING E-SE AT AROUND 30 KT. MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM /WITH
   A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO/ IN THIS CLUSTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
   JOPLIN AT 2248Z. SGF VWP SHOWS ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
   STRUCTURE...WITH 0-1 KM SRH NEAR 200 M2 S-2. GIVEN STRONG SHEAR
   PROFILES RESIDE DOWNSTREAM OVER SWRN MO...ALONG WITH AXIS OF MLCAPE
   VALUES FROM 2500-4000 J/KG...TORNADO THREAT /POTENTIALLY STRONG/
   ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD PERSIST AS HP SUPERCELL CLUSTER
   MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SWRN MO. FARTHER N OVER CNTRL
   MO...CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS MOVING E ACROSS AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR
   SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS. 
   
   MEANWHILE OVER NERN OK...SUSTAINED STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
   TAKING PLACE BASED ON RECENT REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY. WITH SURFACE
   CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7
   C/KM...EXTREME INSTABILITY RESIDES AHEAD OF THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT
   /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 4000 J PER KG/. AREA VWP/S AND RUC SOUNDINGS
   SHOW FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS
   ACTIVITY MOVES DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NERN OK INTO NWRN AR...WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES CONTINUING INTO THE
   EVENING HRS.
   
   OVER S-CNTRL OK...LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL IS RAPIDLY MOVING N TOWARD
   THE SWRN CORNER OF WW 325. THIS STORM WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL IF IT PERSISTS INTO E-CNTRL/NERN OK.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   38779404 38769126 35229404 35229670 38779404