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Mesoscale Discussion 866 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN WI...ERN IA...NRN IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 322...323...327...
VALID 222247Z - 230015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
322...323...327...CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING FROM ERN IA THROUGH WI AND NRN
IL.
EARLY THIS EVENING NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SRN MN SWD THROUGH ERN IA
AND NRN MO. FUTURE STORM EVOLUTION WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY A
WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS ORIGINATED FROM STORMS MOVING
THROUGH ERN IL INTO NWRN IND. NEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES WWD THROUGH NWRN IL. THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF NRN IL INTO SERN WI HAS BEEN RENDERED LESS UNSTABLE
BY THE EFFECTS OF THIS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. A TEMPORARY INCREASE MAY
OCCUR AS PRE-EXISTING STORMS MERGE WITH THE WWD SURGING OUTFLOW.
THEREAFTER...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF A NEGATIVE IMPACT THE MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE ON THE STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE EWD.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN LARGE HODOGRAPHS IN ASSOCIATION WITH 40-50 KT
SWLY LLJ AND SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS.
..DIAL.. 05/22/2011
ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 42408787 40828823 40399093 41449179 43819051 45178960
44938779 42408787
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