MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1053 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN IA...NRN MO...NWRN IL...SWRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 221553Z - 221800Z
   
   CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES ARE LIKELY BY
   MIDDAY.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE ACROSS ERN
   KS...NWRN MO AND INTO IA WHERE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXISTED AS
   A RESULT OF THE UPPER VORT. MEANWHILE...A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA SEWD INTO CNTRL IL...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F
   DEWPOINTS S OF THIS BOUNDARY. 
   
   MORNINGS SOUNDINGS SHOWED CLASSIC LOADED GUN WITH SUBSTANTIAL
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH A BREAKABLE CAPPING
   INVERSION. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL DEVELOP FIRST
   ACROSS MN/IA/WI AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EWD. NRN EXTENT OF THREAT
   AREA WILL COINCIDE WITH WARM FRONT. OTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SWD
   ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO MO AND FAR ERN KS WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL CU
   FIELD WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHEAR
   PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE CAPABLE OF A FEW
   STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...DMX...
   EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   42938956 42448947 41758955 40959003 40179073 38999185
               37979346 37929501 38019553 38329550 39859423 41649341
               42949303 43529242 43819145 43789045 43328958 42938956