MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN AR TO THE ADJACENT MS VALLEY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 221018Z - 221115Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST/POTENTIALLY EXPAND
   NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
   HALVES OF AR...TOWARD THE ADJACENT MS VALLEY INCLUDING THE MO
   BOOTHEEL/WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY.
   
   COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST BRANCH OF A SOMEWHAT
   SPLIT/MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...ASSOCIATED WARM
   ADVECTION/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE
   INCREASE OF ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AR DURING THE
   PREDAWN HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALOFT...WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS
   EXPECTED TO EXPAND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
   HOURS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY VICINITY. ADEQUATE SHEAR THROUGH THE
   CLOUD BEARING LAYER COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STRONG SOURCE REGION
   INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SOME TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL TO SEVERE
   LEVELS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST UPDRAFTS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   33489401 34969338 36189078 36428926 35318874 33539155
               33489401