MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0800
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 180039Z - 180115Z
   
   ISOLD POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO/S MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HR OR SO
   ACROSS ERN CO.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS/RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW OVER ERN
   CO MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY MOIST FLUX INTO THE REGION AS BAND OF
   SMALL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAINTAIN RESIDENCE TIME ALONG VORTICITY
   RICH ZONE ZIPPERING DOWN A NNW-SSE ORIENTED DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH. 
   VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME FROM SERN CO INTERSECTING
   TRIPLE POINT FEATURE INVOF I-70 IN CHEYENNE COUNTY CO IS LIKELY
   AIDING IN STORM INTENSITY BUT SHOULD LESSEN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS AS
   DAYTIME HEATING WANES.  IN THE MEANTIME...STORMS NEAR AND N OF THE
   LOW MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD TORNADO/S...IN ADDITION TO LARGE
   HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/18/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   LAT...LON   38610314 39580322 40190341 40370325 40310296 39730281
               38950268 38570266 38440292 38610314