MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0554 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SC/NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 172254Z - 180045Z
   
   CORRECTED TO WATCH *UNLIKELY*
   
   MULTICELLULAR STORMS WILL POSE SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC AND SERN NC.
   EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
   AND OVERALL STORM COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
   
   STEEPENING DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH
   STRONG ASCENT WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
   CORE...AND MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   TSTMS WITH HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF SC AND NC THIS EVENING. WHILE
   THERMODYNAMICS AND LIFT WILL AID THIS CONVECTION...GENERALLY WEAK
   SHEAR PROFILES WITHIN/NEAR MID/UPPER LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED COLD
   POOL...SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND OVERALL
   PERSISTENCE. THUS...WHILE A FEW CORES WILL HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
   OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...MOST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
   SUB-SEVERE AND MARGINALLY ORGANIZED. IN ADDITION...EXPECT LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECLINE IN STORM VIGOR
   WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/17/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   33507956 34397815 34967849 34977944 34438008 34298052
               34298089 34628199 34678285 34438294 33278163 33338029
               33507956