MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0540 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND / SWRN LOWER MICH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 112240Z - 112345Z
   
   INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
   ACROSS NWRN IND AND THEN INTO SWRN LOWER MICH THIS EVENING.  SOME
   SEVERE RISK MAY ARISE AND WILL MONITOR SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
    
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MICHIANA AHEAD OF
   A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND SHOULD
   GLANCE THE REGION FROM THE W.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW WEAKENS
   CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NRN IND WITH E EXTENT /REF WLC PROFILER TIME
   SERIES/...BACKED LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT IS
   ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE ESPECIALLY
   ACROSS SWRN LOWER MICH WHERE AOA 30 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NOTED IN
   RUC SOUNDINGS AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO STORM ORGANIZATION. 
   MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND
   AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT IF STORMS MATERIALIZE AND BECOME
   SUSTAINED.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/11/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...
   
   LAT...LON   40758700 41138760 41978756 42528697 42708602 42228552
               41608538 40898562 40758700