MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN NC / UPSTATE SC / NERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 112206Z - 112300Z
   
   ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ARE
   FORECAST TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING
   IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  EXPECTED ISOLD NATURE OF THE THREAT
   /STORM COVERAGE/ WILL PROBABLY NOT REQUIRE A WW ISSUANCE GIVEN THE
   SIZE OF THE AREA AFFECTED.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM SWRN VA
   SWD TO THE GA/SC BORDER.  THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
   PREFERENTIALLY FAVORED THE AREA W OF THE ANALYZED SURFACE BOUNDARY
   WHERE TEMPS ARE WARMEST AND AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE S
   SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  IT IS HERE WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS
   BECOME MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE ON ERN EXTENSION OF RESIDUAL EML
   /SBCAPE 2500 J/KG OR HIGHER/.  STRONGLY VEERING AND INCREASING FLOW
   WITH HEIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.  IN ADDITION TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH
   THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS...LARGE SURFACE T-TD SPREADS 25-30 DEG F WILL
   SUPPORT ISOLD MICROBURST ACTIVITY BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
   LESSENS THIS THREAT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/11/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...
   
   LAT...LON   34218353 35378334 35718298 35798245 35328204 34158201
               33888211 33838267 34218353