MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN-NERN WI AND WRN-CENTRAL UPPER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 110819Z - 110915Z
   
   ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NRN-NERN WI
   AND WRN-CENTRAL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
   AN ONGOING ACTIVITY TRACKS SEWD REACHING THE NRN EXTENT OF LAKE MI
   AROUND 13Z.  GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS RESULTING IN
   PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS
   TIME.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY FURTHER INCREASE
   IN COVERAGE OF STRONGER CORES.
   
   SINCE 07Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INCREASING IN
   INTENSITY FROM FAR NORTH CENTRAL WI TO WRN UPPER MI...WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS AT 0815Z LOCATED OVER ONEIDA COUNTY WI AND WRN IRON
   AND WRN MARQUETTE COUNTIES MI.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
   DEVELOPING ALONG AN 850 MB WARM FRONT WHICH PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
   EXTENDED SEWD FROM FAR NRN MN/ADJACENT ONTARIO THROUGH WRN UPPER MI
   AND NERN WI TO CENTRAL AND SRN LOWER MI.  AREA WSR-88D VADS SHOWED A
   20-25 KT WLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO WI PROVIDING AN ELEVATED FEED OF
   VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AS OBSERVED PER 00Z SOUNDINGS AT CHANHASSEN
   MN AND GREEN BAY WI.  CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWED MUCAPE
   3000-4000 J/KG ACROSS WI.  ONE OR TWO WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TOPPING
   THE RIDGE OVER THIS REGION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LOW LEVEL WAA
   SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING
   SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI AND NERN WI THROUGH 12-13Z.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/11/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...
   
   LAT...LON   45678961 46728758 46208645 45378643 44568718 44448788
               44988900 45678961