MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 274...276...
   
   VALID 110734Z - 110830Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   274...276...CONTINUES.
   
   ...ERN SC...
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING
   MCS/BOW ECHO TRACKING SEWD ACROSS ERN SC.  THE BOW STRUCTURE
   EXTENDED FROM MARION COUNTY /25 ESE FLO/ SWWD TO ORANGEBURG COUNTY
   /15 S OGB/.  AIR MASS ALONG AND E OF THIS FAST MOVING /SE AT 40-45
   KT/ LINE OF STORMS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  THIS COMBINED WITH
   THE SPEED OF THE LINE AND A 40-50 KT REAR INFLOW JET OBSERVED AT CAE
   BETWEEN 615-630Z FROM 1-2.5 KM AGL SUGGESTS THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
   PERSIST TO THE COAST WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. 
   RADAR TRENDS INDICATED THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THIS BOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 08Z...WITH THE THREAT GREATLY
   DIMINISHED BY 0830Z.
   
   ...NERN SC...
   MEANWHILE...A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ACROSS NERN
   SC INVOF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT...MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   STORMS.  IN ADDITION TO STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL...TRAINING
   STORMS TRACKING SEWD FROM DILLON/FLORENCE COUNTIES TO THE COAST WILL
   POSE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES RANGING FROM 1-2+ INCH PER
   HOUR.  RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE NWRN EXTENT OF THE MCS...NOW LOCATED
   OVER CHESTERFIELD/DARLINGTON COUNTIES...WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS NERN
   SC REACHING THE COAST AFTER 09Z.  THUS...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
   RAINFALL RATES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA THAT HAVE ALREADY
   RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/11/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   33318076 33797982 34158005 34498028 34868043 34797961
               33797825 33537828 32817910 32387964 32287990 32498041
               32988075 33318076