MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0551
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN/S-CNTRL KY...FAR NRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 242001Z - 242130Z
   
   TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN MO/WRN KY WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN
   THREAT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED
   SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH A WW DOES NOT
   APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.
   
   EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   NRN AR NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING
   S OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S AND
   80S...WHICH IS REINFORCING TIGHT SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN
   ADDITION...CONTINUED INFLUX OF 60S DEWPOINTS IS AIDING IN ELONGATED
   E-W ZONE OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. COMBINATION
   OF 30 KT S-SWLY LLJ EXIT REGION FOCUSED OVER THE FRONT AND MODERATE
   W-SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FAVORING BACKBUILDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
   OVER SERN MO AND WRN KY. CONTINUOUS TRAINING OF CELLS MAY LEAD TO
   LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES FROM 1 TO 2 IN/HR.
   
   MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS
   RESULTING IN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...AREA VWP/S AND RUC FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
   ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...STRONGER CELLS WILL
   POSE A SVR WEATHER RISK. IN ADDITION...SVR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   OVER NRN AR WILL APPROACH SERN MO/WRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
   EVENING. THOUGH A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM...CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   ..GARNER.. 04/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   36878333 36168487 36318946 36828998 37238947 37628786
               37848407 36878333