MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0550
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OK...NRN/CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 241813Z - 241945Z
   
   TSTMS WILL BUILD SWD FROM CNTRL/SWRN OK INTO WRN N TX AND POSSIBLY
   THE TX BIG COUNTRY/CONCHO VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
   THREAT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...A COUPLE TORNADOES
   POSSIBLE.  WEATHER WATCH PROBABILITY ISSUANCE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
   80 PERCENT.
   
   18Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW TO THE SW KSPS WITH A WARM FRONT
   BOWING ENE INTO SCNTRL/SERN OK AND A COLD FRONT SWWD INTO THE NRN
   EDWARDS PLATEAU.  BACKBUILDING CNTRL OK STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
   CLOSER TO THE WARM SECTOR/FRONT NEAR KLAW RECENTLY...LIKELY OWING TO
   HEATING AND APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. 
   THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING OVER
   SCNTRL AND CNTRL OK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ANOTHER REGION OF STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AMID THE
   DEEPENING CU FIELD NEAR THE COLD FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   BOUNDARIES OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY S OF KABI TO KSJT. 
   HERE...AIR MASS HAS BEEN RECOVERING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL
   INTO THE UPPER 80S.
   
   PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
   SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG
   WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS.  A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
   
   HIGHER THREATS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS N TX AND CNTRL/SRN
   OK AS STORMS BEGIN TO PROPAGATE EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.  FARTHER S...STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS THEY
   MOVE OFF THE INITIATING BOUNDARY AND MOVE SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE HILL
   COUNTRY.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   31740124 32780038 33649982 34569859 35029806 35209755
               35209688 35039605 34819520 34429488 33779498 33419529
               32969609 32629680 32279744 31769819 31459880 31369957
               31340015 31360051 31740124