MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0524
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0731 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...CNTRL IN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 230031Z - 230130Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
   HAIL WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL AND EVENTUALLY INTO CNTRL
   IN. DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...A
   WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING AS
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH
   OVERSPREADS THE REGION. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW /40 KTS AT 1 KM AGL
   PER ILX VWP/ ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT
   POSITIONED TO THE S...SHOULD FOCUS GREATEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
   LOW-LEVEL WAA OVER CNTRL IL...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO CNTRL IN
   WITH TIME. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ROOTED
   ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES YIELDING
   MUCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL MAY
   EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 04/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
   
   LAT...LON   39088560 39248794 39558956 39549051 39729124 40039137
               40539117 40759003 40838834 40918773 40848669 40698573
               40478486 39498478 39158504 39088560