MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN AR INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 230029Z - 230200Z
   
   STORMS UPSTREAM ACROSS NWRN AR/SRN MO MAY EVENTUALLY THREATEN NRN AR
   INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS
   EVENING.
   
   00Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE 850 MB
   BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE FOR SUPERCELLS.
   HOWEVER...CAPPING IS LIKELY LESS ACROSS NRN AR WITHIN THE
   PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS. WITH 40-50 KT WLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS
   THE WARM SECTOR...AND A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...THERE IS A CHANCE
   STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AREA OUT OF ERN OK/NWRN AR.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO VEER WITH TIME TO
   WSWLY AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE N...THIS MAY DECREASE THE TORNADO
   THREAT. AT ANY RATE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS
   HEAVY RAIN...MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE EXPECTED.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   35739357 36479302 36758981 36588988 36379002 36119040
               35759120 35739357