MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0409 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA INTO WRN AND CNTRL SC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 147...
   
   VALID 160909Z - 161045Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 147 CONTINUES.
   
   A NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED BY 10Z EXPIRATION OF WW 147.
   
   IN RESPONSE TO ONGOING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE LEE OF THE
   SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA INDICATE A
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
   SAVANNAH VALLEY AND CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING.  ALTHOUGH
   LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY WEAK...THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
   DAYBREAK.  ALTHOUGH A MORE SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL
   ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
   BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS MAY BECOME
   INCREASINGLY LIKELY EAST OF ATHENS GA INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA BY
   11-13Z.  STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO THIS POTENTIAL...AND...IF IT OCCURS...STRONG DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/16/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...
   
   LAT...LON   34018356 34428323 34738253 34888137 34788062 33848048
               33178184 33028291 33418348 34018356