MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 AM CDT MON APR 04 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN WI...NERN IL...CENTRAL/WRN LOWER
   MI...CENTRAL/SRN LM...EXTREME NWRN INDIANA.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86...
   
   VALID 040653Z - 040830Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86
   CONTINUES.
   
   SVR POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE MRGL AND DISORGANIZED FOR HAIL
   AS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS NOW OVER WW MOVE ACROSS LM AND OVER LOWER MI. 
   WHILE ISOLATED SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM MOST INTENSE
   CORES...PRIND
   1. REMAINDER WW CAN BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z AS SCHEDULED...AND
   2. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY OVER MI.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE MOVING EWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL LM...WITH
   COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS IL/MO/OK...TROUGH EWD THROUGH SECOND LOW OVER
   SWRN LOWER MI...AND WARM FRONT SEWD OVER NWRN INDIANA AND CENTRAL
   OH.  AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES MOVING NEWD OVER SRN MI AND OH AHEAD OF
   LM LOW...STG/ELEVATED WAA WILL CONTINUE TO ITS N.  ASSOCIATED
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO LFC...WILL SUPPORT
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS IN
   BANDS AND CLUSTERS...FROM LM EWD ACROSS LOWER MI.  MEANWHILE
   SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE
   MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS.  MUCAPE 300-800
   J/KG IS EXPECTED N OF WARM FRONT...ALTHOUGH LOCATION/DEPTH OF
   BUOYANT LAYER WITHIN COLUMN...WITH RESPECT TO STRONGEST WINDS
   ALOFT...WILL KEEP EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOB 40 KT MOST AREAS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/04/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...
   
   LAT...LON   42258420 41148875 43238865 44338410 42258420