MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 AM CDT MON APR 04 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN IL...EXTREME SERN KS...EXTREME
   NWRN AR...CENTRAL/ERN/SRN MO...NERN OK.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 84...85...
   
   VALID 040629Z - 040800Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   84...85...CONTINUES.
   
   BKN BAND OF MAINLY POST COLD-FRONTAL TSTMS...MANY OF WHICH ARE
   PRODUCING WELL-DEFINED GUST FRONTS SUPERIMPOSED UPON POSTFRONTAL AIR
   MASS...IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS REMAINDER WW AREAS THEN
   OVER SWATH FROM CENTRAL/SRN IL SWWD ACROSS NRN/WRN OZARKS.  OVERALL
   REFLECTIVITY TRENDS APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS
   PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CINH...HOWEVER STG/ISOLATED SVR GUSTS REMAIN
   POSSIBLE.  WITH ORGANIZATION OF SVR THREAT DIMINISHING FOR TIME
   BEING...CURRENT PREFERENCE IS TO LET REMAINDER OF WWS 84-85 EXPIRE
   AT 07Z AS SCHEDULED.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THIS
   REGION APPROXIMATELY 30 KT...NEAR PIA-AIZ-JLN LINE AS OF 06Z.  THIS
   GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SMALL-SCALE
   REINFORCEMENTS/INFLECTIONS WHERE GUST FRONTS CATCH UP TO SYNOPTIC
   BOUNDARY.  COMBINATION OF 06Z OBSERVED ILX RAOB...MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS
   AND RUC SOUNDINGS FARTHER SW INDICATED PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CINH
   FOR BOTH SFC-BASED AND ELEVATED PARCELS.  VERTICALLY TRUNCATED --
   AND THEREFORE INDEFINITE IN MAGNITUDE -- CAPE PROFILE AT ILX WAS
   ROOTED IN ELEVATED INFLOW LAYER AROUND 800 MB.  RELATIVELY DRY
   SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL STABILIZE DIABATICALLY VERY NEAR SFC...BUT
   ALSO...WILL SUPPORT DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME
   STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH SFC.  SIMILAR
   PREFRONTAL DRYING BETWEEN SKIN LAYER AND CLOUD BASE IS EVIDENT SWWD
   INTO WRN OZARKS.  MEANWHILE MLCINH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
   REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS...MORE SLOWLY NEAR SFC MOIST AXIS.  SFC
   MOIST AXES WERE DRAWN NEAR ORD-SPI-CGI-MLU LINE...AND ALSO...NEAR
   PRX-TUL-SGF LINE IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO FROPA.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
   IS POSSIBLE INVOF FRONT...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT IMPINGES UPON EITHER
   MOIST AXIS...AND AREAS SE OF EXPIRING WATCHES WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE/DESTABILIZATION TRENDS THROUGH REMAINDER
   PRE-DAWN HOURS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/04/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
   ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   36549550 37919419 39789159 41218995 41098822 39758847
               38118981 37039139 36409316 36019476 36199530 36549550