MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0304
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SRN MS...FAR SRN AL...FAR SE TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 291948Z - 292115Z
   
   RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING CU FIELD OVER
   SRN LA /WITH OBSERVED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE PAST HR/. AN
   EXPECTED UPSWING IN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
   AFTERNOON. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE
   ISSUANCE OF A WW...PERHAPS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   LATEST SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY TO VERY
   UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS THE
   REGION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES MAXIMIZED OVER S-CNTRL LA /WHERE
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S/. BROKEN CLOUD COVER HAS
   LIMITED HEATING OVER E TX/WRN LA AND SRN MS/AL...AND WILL LIKELY
   DELAY CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DEEPENING CU FIELD/RECENTLY OBSERVED
   LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SRN LA APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN CLOSE
   PROXIMITY TO AN ANALYZED MARINE/WARM FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   OVER THE SHORT-TERM...BUT THE PRESENCE OF SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING
   OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING MAY PRECLUDE
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
   SAID...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 40 KTS WILL SUPPORT THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY EXIST
   /PARTICULARLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
   ENHANCED/...BUT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK
   0-1 KM FLOW.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 03/29/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   LAT...LON   30639390 31069163 31288998 31118799 30278788 29238960
               29149105 29529366 29929423 30639390