MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0218 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRAND VALLEY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
   AND SRN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 291918Z - 292115Z
   
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EDWARDS
   PLATEAU REGION OF TX SUPPORTS INCREASING -- BUT STILL CONDITIONAL --
   POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SLOT OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
   SKY NEAR AND N OF DRT /DEL RIO TX/...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW INTO
   THE 70S TO 80S.  WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EVIDENT IN THIS REGION...ON WRN
   FRINGE OF A WAVY FRONT DRAPING SEWD INVOF THE RIO GRANDE...AND THEN
   EWD ACROSS S TX AND INTO THE MIDDLE TX COAST.  
   
   WHILE CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS
   NRN MEXICO AND INTO W TX COMBINED WITH CONTINUED HEATING WILL ACT TO
   WEAKEN THE CAP WITH TIME.  FIRST HINTS OF DEEPER CU/CB DEVELOPMENT
   ARE EVIDENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO SW OF DRT -- EVIDENCE OF
   THE INCREASING ASCENT...AND IT APPEARS THAT POTENTIAL FOR
   DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE NEWD INTO TX WITH TIME.
   
   WHILE STILL CONDITIONAL UPON CAP EROSION/STORM DEVELOPMENT... SEVERE
   THREAT -- PARTICULARLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- WOULD LIKELY EVOLVE
   SUBSEQUENT TO STORM INITIATION...AS 30 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL WSWLYS
   SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CELLS.  WHILE TIMING
   REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR SIGNS OF
   MORE IMMINENT DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/29/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   29220080 29760158 30430104 31039925 30029866 29179705
               28339734 28210014 29220080