MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 262222Z - 262345Z
   
   ISOLATED HAIL...SOME SEVERE...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING
   ACROSS MIDDLE TO ERN TN.  GIVEN THE LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THIS
   THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
   MOVING INTO EXTREME NWRN AL WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN
   AL AND THEN DRAPED SEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL AL/WEST CENTRAL GA...WITH
   A FURTHER EWD EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL GA. 
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG AND
   NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS TN...WHILE LIGHTNING
   DATA/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED ONGOING CONVECTION/TSTMS OVER
   MUCH OF TN.  GIVEN THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS ACTIVITY IS
   ELEVATED...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING MUCAPE 100-500 J/KG
   AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-40 KT.
   
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH TRACKING
   EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WAA N OF THE WARM
   FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING AFFECTING MIDDLE AND
   ERN TN.  WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAKER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
   LIMIT THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.  HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF BULK SHEAR
   SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE FOR ORGANIZATION AND THUS POSE
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/26/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...OHX...HUN...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   35028470 35118806 35778862 36018797 36288643 36348475
               36188325 35008392 35028470