MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0433 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TX...NWRN LA AND SWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 262133Z - 262230Z
   
   PARTS OF ERN TX INTO NWRN LA/SWRN AR ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A COUPLE OF STRONGER
   TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED SINCE 20Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX /THE COUNTIES OF
   BANDERA TO BLANCO AND TRAVIS/.  SO FAR...HAIL PRODUCED BY THESE
   STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE.  IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SHOWED CU/TCU DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY LINE EXTENDING SWWD
   FROM EXTREME SWRN AR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX...JUST WEST OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED STORMS.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED STRONGER DEEP
   MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER NERN TX AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX WHERE CU
   APPEARS TO HAVE GREATER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.  
   
   THE AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J PER KG/...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT
   ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRY LINE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED
   ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  DESPITE THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND GIVEN
   THAT THE FLOW IS VEERED IS BOTH LIMITING CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR FOR A TORNADO THREAT.  HOWEVER...ANY STORM THAT CAN
   BECOME SUSTAINED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL
   AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.  FURTHER LIMITATION FOR GREATER TSTM COVERAGE
   IS THE APPARENT LACK OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/26/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   LAT...LON   29669955 30809773 31989641 33319488 33749412 33519297
               33029288 31869298 29969505 29339664 29249824 29669955