MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0709 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 250009Z - 250145Z
   
   ONE SUPERCELL IS UNDERWAY IN SCURRY CO TEXAS...WITH ADDITIONAL
   INITIATION POSSIBLE ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE IN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.
   A WW IS POSSIBLE IF ADDITIONAL CELLS BECOME ORGANIZED.
   
   23Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A DRYLINE ACROSS FAR W TX...WITH CU NOTED
   RUNNING FROM AROUND LBB S TO NEAR AND JUST SW OF MAF. MEANWHILE...A
   NW-TO-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT RUNS FROM S OF LBB TO THE NE OF MAF.
   WHILE MANY CELLS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SURVIVE AS THEY MOVE OFF THE
   DRYLINE...ONE CELL HAS INTENSIFIED AND HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SEVERE
   HAIL NE OF MAF. HOWEVER...THIS CELL HAS MOVED N OF THE WARM FRONT
   AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS WEAKER BUOYANCY AND
   STRONGER SFC-BASED INHIBITION.
   
   ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY FORM FURTHER W ON THE DRYLINE IN THE NEXT 1-2
   HRS BEFORE DIABATIC COOLING STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. VERY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES.../AS NOTED ON THE 00Z MAF SOUNDING/...MU CAPE OF
   1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT A LARGE
   HAIL THREAT WITH ANY CELL THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. LARGE T/TD
   SPREADS AND DCAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
   ISOLATED SEVERE WIND. 
   
   IF ADDITIONAL STORMS FORM FURTHER WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE AND HAVE
   THE OPPORTUNITY TO STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
   TWO...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED.
   
   ..DEAN.. 03/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   31760245 32310220 32850191 33520180 33900203 34100216
               34340181 34520135 34600103 34540064 34260007 33469969
               32889977 32170013 31830060 31620147 31670196 31760245