MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0269
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 242028Z - 242200Z
   
   AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF WEST TX. ANY STORM THAT FORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. TRENDS IN THIS
   AREA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
   50S/ IS RETREATING NWD BEHIND A WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF WEST
   TEXAS...WHILE A DRYLINE EXTENDS WEST OF THE SERN NM/WRN TX BORDER
   INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. THIS IS RESULTING IN A
   TRIANGULAR-SHAPED WEDGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   PERMIAN BASIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE AMPLE
   INSOLATION TODAY HAS YIELDED SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE
   80S. IN THIS REGION...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS...COINCIDENT WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
   J/KG PER RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT
   NWD DUE TO CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE
   MOIST/UNSTABLE SECTOR IS FORECAST TO EXPAND FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
   TX SOUTH PLAINS.
   
   AN ISOLATED STORM FOR TWO COULD FORM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
   SUBTLE FORCING TRANSLATES NEWD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NWRN
   MEXICO. MULTIPLE MEMBERS OF HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE SUGGEST
   THAT ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...AT
   MOST...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING.
   HOWEVER...WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION
   /SWLY WINDS OF 50 KT AT 3 KM AGL AND 70 KT AT 5 KM AGL PER TCU
   PROFILER/...MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
   BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND
   SHEAR INVOF THE SFC WARM FRONT IS YIELDING EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
   AROUND 200 M2/S2...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD A TORNADO THREAT AS
   WELL WITH ANY RIGHT-MOVING STORM NEAR THE WARM FRONT. ANY SEVERE
   THREAT WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL...AND TRENDS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   ..COHEN.. 03/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   33070254 34040177 33950064 33360002 32419952 31599965
               31170023 31080115 31440223 32570264 33070254