MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IND/NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 231712Z - 231845Z
   
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT...ACROSS NERN IND AND NWRN OH. GIVEN THE
   LIMITED COVERAGE OF ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS...A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   ASCENT LEADING A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING INTO NRN IND HAS
   RECENTLY SUPPORTED THE INITIATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR
   NERN IND AND NWRN OH AROUND FWA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
   TO DEVELOP INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN IND AND BE STEERED INTO
   NWRN OH...AS THE ASCENT INTERCEPTS A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES /7.5 TO 8.5 C PER KM/ SUPPORTING MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
   500 TO 1000 J PER KG ACCORDING TO RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PARCELS
   ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROOTED BETWEEN 850 AND 900 MB ATOP THE STABLE
   NEAR-SURFACE LAYER NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE
   DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL IND/OH. THUS...ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA /NORTH OF THE FORTHCOMING TORNADO WATCH/ IS EXPECTED
   TO BE ELEVATED. GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40 TO 50 KT...SOME OF THE STORMS
   COULD POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE IN
   COVERAGE...THUS PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WW NORTH OF THE
   FORTHCOMING TORNADO WATCH.
   
   ..COHEN.. 03/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...IWX...
   
   LAT...LON   41078299 40858374 40788484 40738590 41078644 41668623
               41688532 41658352 41598304 41078299