MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1102 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ERN KY...ERN IND...OH...WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 231602Z - 231730Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN IND...CNTRL-ERN
   KY...OH AND WV THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS INITIATE AND EXPAND
   QUICKLY IN COVERAGE. A TORNADO WATCH SHOULD BE NECESSARY OVER THE 1
   TO 2 HOURS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998 MB LOW NEAR INDIANAPOLIS WITH A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL OH. SOUTH OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 250 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE
   FROM WV WWD ACROSS KY INTO SRN IND WHERE A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND NEAR THE
   STRONGEST INSTABILITY IN ERN IND...SW OH AND NCNTRL KY BY 18Z WHICH
   THE 14Z HRRR AGREES WITH. RAPID DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 75 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET
   EJECTING ENEWD OUT OF THE MID-MS VALLEY SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
   SEVERE STORMS. THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE
   SHOULD SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS.
   WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS
   ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE FAST EWD STORM MOTIONS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
   ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE
   DOMINANT SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
   IWX...IND...PAH...
   
   LAT...LON   36878412 37048243 37378108 38138047 39198025 39728040
               40148101 40528264 40458468 40168541 39618632 38438689
               37348670 36908526 36878412