MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 AM CST TUE FEB 08 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN CO...EXTREME SWRN/S-CENTRAL
   NEB...N-CENTRAL/NWRN AND WRN KS.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 080856Z - 081500Z
   
   SNOW RATES FCST TO INCREASE TO 1-2 INCHES/HOUR WITHIN SWATH OF
   ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT FCST TO UNDERGO NET SEWD SHIFT/GROWTH
   ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 15Z.
   
   ACROSS MAINLY CO/WRN KS PORTION OF THIS SWATH...LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ALOFT...I.E. STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL DCVA AND MID-UPPER
   PV...IS FCST AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
   EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PORTIONS UT/NWRN CO/SWRN
   WY.  CLOSED 500-MB CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER NWRN CO IN NEXT FEW
   HOURS AS TROUGH DEEPENS...WITH PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE
   ALREADY EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF WRN/NRN CO TO CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS.  AS THIS DEVELOPMENT ALOFT CONTINUES...SFC LOW AND
   ATTACHED FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT SWD FROM SERN CO ACROSS NWRN TX
   PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE...ASCENT IN FORM OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC
   LIFT ALSO IS FCST TO INCREASE OVER NRN KS AND NEB/KS BORDER
   REGION...ESPECIALLY AROUND 294K-297K THETA SURFACES WHICH FCST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE CORRESPOND WELL TO LOWER-MIDDLE AREAS OF
   DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.  LOWER PORTION OF THIS ASCENT WILL BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH 30-40 KT LLJ NOW EVIDENT IN PROFILER DATA OVER SWRN
   KS.  SOME OVERLAP OF THESE TWO MAIN UVV REGIMES IS EXPECTED OVER
   NWRN KS...AND ACCORDINGLY...RUC/ETA-KF AND MANY SREF MEMBERS
   STRONGLY AGREE ON RELATIVE PRECIP MAX OVER WRN/NWRN KS THIS MORNING.
    ALTHOUGH ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK OF MORE ROBUST DEEP-LAYER
   MOISTURE...WITH PW GENERALLY UNDER 1/3 INCH...STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER
   FORCING GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUGGESTS FAVORABLE PRECIP
   EFFICIENCY FOR OCNL 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES EVEN FOR SOMEWHAT LOW
   LIQUID-EQUIVALENT SNOWFALL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   LAT...LON   39320323 40000225 40400115 40169943 39589715 39149671
               38609704 38749863 38819975 38520028 38010102 37880257
               37800406 38390485 39320323