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Mesoscale Discussion 93 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CST MON FEB 07 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071844Z - 072015Z
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CNTRL FL. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.
A CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDING FROM THE FL COAST TO ABOUT 120 STATUTE
MILES TO THE WEST OF TAMPA BAY IS LOCATED VERY NEAR A SLOW-MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SFC TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY VEERED SFC WINDS...50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS THROUGH THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD MAKE
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT AS CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE
INTENSIFY AND MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 02/07/2011
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 27628066 27208199 27288262 27748282 28318280 28678276
28918258 29078205 29178151 29068104 28788068 28348055
27628066
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