MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 AM CST WED FEB 02 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY AND MUCH OF INTERIOR/NRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 020757Z - 021200Z
   
   EAST BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYOR ATTENDANT TO MIDWEST CYCLONE
   CONTINUES TO ENHANCE PCPN SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS NY AND
   MID-ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING.  LOW/MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL
   ADVANCE NEWD INTO PA/SRN NY THROUGH 10Z...REDUCING OR SHUTTING OFF
   HEAVIER PCPN RATES THERE.  HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ZONE OF
   1-2" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL EVOLVE FROM NRN NY STATE EWD
   ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PARTS OF VT/NH AND INTO CNTRL/SRN MAINE THROUGH
   LATE MORNING.  HERE...COBB SNOWFALL RATIOS BASED OFF THE 00Z NAM
   SUGGEST AROUND 15:1 AND GIVEN UPSTREAM LIQUID EQUIV RATES
   APPROACHING 0.10" PER HOUR...HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD FIT
   COMFORTABLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE.  THE HEAVIEST RATES SHOULD EXIST
   WITHIN A 40 MILE CORRIDOR CENTERED KSLK-KBML-KBGR.  HEAVIER SNOW
   WILL GRADUALLY END FROM W-E THROUGH THE MORNING. 
   
   MEANWHILE...SRN EXTENTS OF PCPN SHIELD WILL OFFER A P-TYPE
   CHALLENGE.  WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF
   MDT-HEAVY SNOW OVER SERN NEW ENGLAND...GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO
   SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH MOST INTENSE PCPN RATES IN CNTRL
   MA INTO SERN NH...ALA 00Z NAM/21Z SREF SOLUTIONS...IN THE 10-15Z
   TIME FRAME.  THOSE RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AFTER 15Z AS MOST
   FORCING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO INTERIOR NRN NEW ENGLAND.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/02/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BUF...
   
   LAT...LON   43866953 43007065 42277161 41997247 42217294 42727324
               43057342 43387380 43517464 43857595 44087617 44717555
               45077471 45117163 45677079 45856976 45146831 44436847
               43866953