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Mesoscale Discussion 80 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN AL...SWRN/S-CENTRAL GA...FL
PANHANDLE...EXTREME NWRN FL.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...
VALID 020447Z - 020615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11 CONTINUES.
REMAINDER WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 05Z.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT ABOUT 40 NM OFFSHORE SC COAST SWWD
ACROSS OKEFENOKEE SWAMP...THEN NWWD BETWEEN VLD-AMG AND JUST N
ABY...BECOMING DIFFUSE UNDER PRECIP SHIELD THAT DENOTES REMNANTS OF
NRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE PLUME. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POCKETS OF RELATIVELY MINIMIZED MLCINH -- I.E. AROUND 50 J/KG --
ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN GA SURROUNDED BY MUCH STRONGER CINH N OF WARM
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH NERN GULF MARINE LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS REGION...HOWEVER BUOYANCY
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE LIMITED SPATIALLY AND IN MAGNITUDE...WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG IN NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF LINE IN CENTRAL
PANHANDLE OF FL....AND DIMINISHING NWD. WHILE SVR THREAT -- IN FORM
OF ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST OR TORNADO -- IS NON-ZERO OVER REMAINDER
WW AREA AND EWD ACROSS PORTIONS SRN GA S OF WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO DECREASE GRADUALLY AS SRN PORTION OF PRIMARY SQUALL
LINE MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER-MLCINH BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS.
..EDWARDS.. 02/02/2011
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 30378609 31008557 31428531 31838470 32218366 31878309
30538266 29658342 30088400 29588498 29688516 29648538
29918546 30058558 30248590 30378609
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