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Mesoscale Discussion 11 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX SEWD INTO CNTRL MS
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 091309Z - 091815Z
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HRLY
RATES TO AROUND 0.05 IN.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS AR AND NRN MS...WITH A RATHER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH ADVECTION AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. AS DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION PROFILES
STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SHIELD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE AREA.
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WET-BULBING POTENTIAL ALOFT
FROM SHV TO JAN...BUT AS THE COLUMN SATURATES...SOME WARMING THROUGH
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING WARM NOSE ALOFT. THESE PROFILES WILL FAVOR FREEZING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST N OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE.
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES BUT THE WARMING ALOFT
COULD CHANGE IT BACK TO FREEZING RAIN COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW WILL
OCCUR WITH NWD EXTENT AND INTO THE DEEPER COLD AIR...FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO CNTRL AR BY MIDDAY.
..JEWELL.. 01/09/2011
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33519210 33209103 33019044 32769032 32479027 32329031
32159048 32069063 32579294 32939428 33479475 33789410
33519210
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