MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0128 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 090728Z - 090930Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THEY MAKE
   THEIR WAY ACROSS DEEP S TX. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
   DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE MAY BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A
   WATCH.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF LRD TO
   CRP. TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN
   THE 50S F WHICH IS STABLE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. TO THE
   FRONT...DEWPOINTS RISE TO THE MID 60S F...WHICH RESULTS IN MODERATE
   INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG USING MODIFIED FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS.
   
   A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
   AS IT CONTINUES EWD. A DEEPENING LOW SHOULD TRAVEL EWD ALONG THE
   WARM FRONT...WHERE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. AREAS OF
   SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WERE NOTED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF
   STORMS...INDICATIVE OF LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS THE PRIMARY LINE
   OF STORMS ENCOUNTERS THIS ZONE OF LIFT...IT WILL ALSO BE IN CLOSER
   PROXIMITY TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY FEEDING FROM THE
   SOUTH...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING. SURFACE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WILL
   BE GREATEST RIGHT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY S OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE
   THE SURFACE AIR MASS IS LESS DENSE AND MORE UNSTABLE.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
   PROFILES...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EVEN N OF
   THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AND MAY
   BE SHALLOW. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
   STRENGTHENING AS THE STORMS APPROACH THE CRP AREA.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/09/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   LAT...LON   28589886 28809729 28739652 28419620 28059653 27599702
               27289719 27129725 27019788 26919873 26929941 27229954
               27629925 28109907 28589886