Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
110 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern New York
Northeast Ohio
Northern Pennsylvania
Lake Erie
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 110 PM
until 900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop along a surface boundary across
northern Pennsylvania through the afternoon. The more intense
storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and some
hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest
of Youngstown OH to 10 miles east southeast of Monticello NY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 464 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA LE 261710Z - 270100Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40WNW YNG/YOUNGSTOWN OH/ - 10ESE MSV/MONTICELLO NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /21E CLE - 35N SAX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 42128139 42307462 40997462 40828139
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 464 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 464
VALID 262255Z - 262340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE UNV
TO 10 WSW IPT TO 30 S ELM TO 25 SW BGM TO 25 NE MSV.
..GOSS..06/26/24
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC105-262340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SULLIVAN
$$
PAC005-015-019-037-069-079-081-093-097-103-107-109-113-115-119-
127-131-262340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BRADFORD BUTLER
COLUMBIA LACKAWANNA LUZERNE
LYCOMING MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
PIKE SCHUYLKILL SNYDER
SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA UNION
WAYNE WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.