Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Northern Iowa
Northern Kansas
Southern and Eastern Nebraska
Far Southeast South Dakota
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify along and east of
a cold front this afternoon, while posing a threat for mainly
severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph along with 1-2 inch diameter
hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast
of Spencer IA to 30 miles southwest of Concordia KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 433...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Gleason
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Northern Iowa
Northern Kansas
Southern and Eastern Nebraska
Far Southeast South Dakota
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify along and east of
a cold front this afternoon, while posing a threat for mainly
severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph along with 1-2 inch diameter
hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast
of Spencer IA to 30 miles southwest of Concordia KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 433...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Gleason
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 434 SEVERE TSTM IA KS NE SD 181845Z - 190100Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NNE SPW/SPENCER IA/ - 30SW CNK/CONCORDIA KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /59NNW FOD - 27NW SLN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 43439350 39229665 39229945 43439649
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 434 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 434
VALID 190025Z - 190140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE RSL TO
40 ESE HSI TO 15 ENE EAR TO 30 W OLU TO 20 ENE LNK TO 30 NW DNS
TO 15 E SLB TO 20 E OTG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328
PORTIONS OF WW 434 WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME BEYOND 01Z.
..DEAN..06/19/24
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 434
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-025-027-029-033-047-063-071-081-085-091-093-109-129-137-
147-151-155-161-165-187-189-195-197-190140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON CALHOUN CARROLL
CASS CERRO GORDO CRAWFORD
EMMET FREMONT HANCOCK
HARRISON HUMBOLDT IDA
KOSSUTH MILLS MONTGOMERY
PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS POTTAWATTAMIE
SAC SHELBY WEBSTER
WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT
$$
KSC027-029-117-123-143-157-201-190140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLOUD MARSHALL
MITCHELL OTTAWA REPUBLIC
WASHINGTON
$$
NEC025-055-059-067-081-095-097-109-127-131-133-143-151-153-169-
185-190140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS DOUGLAS FILLMORE
GAGE HAMILTON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA
OTOE PAWNEE POLK
SALINE SARPY THAYER
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 434
VALID 182035Z - 182140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW OLU
TO 20 SE OFK TO 25 SW SUX TO 15 N SUX TO 45 SW OTG TO 20 SW OTG
TO 15 SW OTG.
..LYONS..06/18/24
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 434
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-021-025-027-029-033-035-041-047-059-063-071-081-085-091-
093-109-129-133-137-141-143-147-149-151-155-161-165-167-187-189-
193-195-197-182140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON BUENA VISTA CALHOUN
CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO
CHEROKEE CLAY CRAWFORD
DICKINSON EMMET FREMONT
HANCOCK HARRISON HUMBOLDT
IDA KOSSUTH MILLS
MONONA MONTGOMERY O'BRIEN
OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH
POCAHONTAS POTTAWATTAMIE SAC
SHELBY SIOUX WEBSTER
WINNEBAGO WOODBURY WORTH
WRIGHT
$$
KSC027-029-089-117-123-141-143-147-157-163-183-201-182140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLOUD JEWELL
MARSHALL MITCHELL OSBORNE
OTTAWA PHILLIPS REPUBLIC
ROOKS SMITH WASHINGTON
$$
NEC001-021-023-025-035-037-039-053-055-059-061-067-079-081-083-
095-097-099-109-121-125-127-129-131-133-141-143-151-153-155-159-
169-173-177-181-185-182140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BURT BUTLER
CASS CLAY COLFAX
CUMING DODGE DOUGLAS
FILLMORE FRANKLIN GAGE
HALL HAMILTON HARLAN
JEFFERSON JOHNSON KEARNEY
LANCASTER MERRICK NANCE
NEMAHA NUCKOLLS OTOE
PAWNEE PLATTE POLK
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD THAYER THURSTON
WASHINGTON WEBSTER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 434
VALID 181930Z - 182040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..06/18/24
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 434
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-021-025-027-029-033-035-041-047-059-063-071-081-085-091-
093-109-119-129-133-137-141-143-147-149-151-155-161-165-167-187-
189-193-195-197-182040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON BUENA VISTA CALHOUN
CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO
CHEROKEE CLAY CRAWFORD
DICKINSON EMMET FREMONT
HANCOCK HARRISON HUMBOLDT
IDA KOSSUTH LYON
MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY
O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO
PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS POTTAWATTAMIE
SAC SHELBY SIOUX
WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WOODBURY
WORTH WRIGHT
$$
KSC027-029-089-117-123-141-143-147-157-163-183-201-182040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLOUD JEWELL
MARSHALL MITCHELL OSBORNE
OTTAWA PHILLIPS REPUBLIC
ROOKS SMITH WASHINGTON
$$
NEC001-021-023-025-035-037-039-043-051-053-055-059-061-067-079-
081-083-095-097-099-109-121-125-127-129-131-133-141-143-151-153-
155-159-167-169-173-177-179-181-185-182040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BURT BUTLER
CASS CLAY COLFAX
CUMING DAKOTA DIXON
DODGE DOUGLAS FILLMORE
FRANKLIN GAGE HALL
HAMILTON HARLAN JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KEARNEY LANCASTER
MERRICK NANCE NEMAHA
NUCKOLLS OTOE PAWNEE
PLATTE POLK SALINE
SARPY SAUNDERS SEWARD
STANTON THAYER THURSTON
WASHINGTON WAYNE WEBSTER
YORK
$$
SDC127-182040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.