Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM EST Fri Dec 14 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central Florida
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
1000 PM EST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of strong thunderstorms is approaching the west
coast of central Florida. These storms will move across the watch
area, posing the risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles east northeast
of Saint Petersburg FL to 35 miles west northwest of Sarasota FL.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Hart
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM EST Fri Dec 14 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central Florida
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
1000 PM EST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A line of strong thunderstorms is approaching the west
coast of central Florida. These storms will move across the watch
area, posing the risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles east northeast
of Saint Petersburg FL to 35 miles west northwest of Sarasota FL.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Hart
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 438 SEVERE TSTM FL CW 142105Z - 150300Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
80ENE PIE/SAINT PETERSBURG FL/ - 35WNW SRQ/SARASOTA FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /13SSW ORL - 28SW PIE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 27628145 26878308 28318308 29078145
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 438 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 438
VALID 150225Z - 150300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WW 438 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150300Z.
..NAUSLAR..12/15/18
ATTN...WFO...TBW...MLB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 438
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC049-053-057-069-081-101-103-105-115-119-150300-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH
LAKE MANATEE PASCO
PINELLAS POLK SARASOTA
SUMTER
$$
GMZ830-853-150300-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 438
VALID 150130Z - 150240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711
..NAUSLAR..12/15/18
ATTN...WFO...TBW...MLB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 438
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC049-053-057-069-081-101-103-105-115-119-150240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH
LAKE MANATEE PASCO
PINELLAS POLK SARASOTA
SUMTER
$$
GMZ830-853-150240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 438
VALID 150035Z - 150140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711
..NAUSLAR..12/15/18
ATTN...WFO...TBW...MLB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 438
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC049-053-057-069-081-101-103-105-115-119-150140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH
LAKE MANATEE PASCO
PINELLAS POLK SARASOTA
SUMTER
$$
GMZ830-850-853-150140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 438
VALID 142355Z - 150040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711
..NAUSLAR..12/14/18
ATTN...WFO...TBW...MLB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 438
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC049-053-057-069-081-101-103-105-115-119-150040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH
LAKE MANATEE PASCO
PINELLAS POLK SARASOTA
SUMTER
$$
GMZ830-850-853-150040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 438
VALID 142230Z - 142340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1710
..NAUSLAR..12/14/18
ATTN...WFO...TBW...MLB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 438
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC049-053-057-069-081-101-103-105-115-119-142340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH
LAKE MANATEE PASCO
PINELLAS POLK SARASOTA
SUMTER
$$
GMZ830-850-853-142340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.