Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
600 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Much of Upper Michigan
Northeastern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
Lake Superior
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 600 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A convective cluster will likely continue eastward along
the shore of Lake Superior through the late evening hours, with an
attendant threat for damaging winds. Farther southwest, a larger
thunderstorm line/cluster now crossing the Mississippi River will
continue across Wisconsin and Upper Michigan into the overnight
hours. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out with circulations embedded within
the larger clusters/lines.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest
of Rhinelander WI to 45 miles northeast of Escanaba MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 353...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24040.
...Thompson
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
600 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Much of Upper Michigan
Northeastern Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
Lake Superior
* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 600 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A convective cluster will likely continue eastward along
the shore of Lake Superior through the late evening hours, with an
attendant threat for damaging winds. Farther southwest, a larger
thunderstorm line/cluster now crossing the Mississippi River will
continue across Wisconsin and Upper Michigan into the overnight
hours. Damaging winds will be the main threat, though an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out with circulations embedded within
the larger clusters/lines.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest
of Rhinelander WI to 45 miles northeast of Escanaba MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 353...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24040.
...Thompson
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 354 SEVERE TSTM MI WI LM LS 272300Z - 280600Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35WSW RHI/RHINELANDER WI/ - 45NE ESC/ESCANABA MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM N/S /31WSW RHI - 41ESE SAW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
LAT...LON 46959013 47708643 44658643 43909013
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 354 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 354
VALID 280345Z - 280440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E VOK TO
25 WNW OSH TO 20 NNE OSH TO 10 NNE GRB TO 45 SSE IMT TO 10 SSW
ESC TO 15 ESE ESC TO 30 NE ESC TO 40 E MQT TO 40 NE MQT TO 70 ENE
CMX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1376
..JEWELL..08/28/18
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 354
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-095-153-280440-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER LUCE SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-015-029-061-071-139-280440-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALUMET DOOR
KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC WINNEBAGO
$$
LMZ221-248-250-261-521-522-541-542-543-563-565-567-LSZ250-251-266-
267-280440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI
GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI
LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 354
VALID 280225Z - 280340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW CWA
TO 5 SE CWA TO 40 ESE AUW TO 25 NNW GRB TO 35 NNE GRB TO 40 SSE
IMT TO 15 SE IMT TO 15 WNW IMT TO 50 E IWD TO 20 NW CMX.
..JEWELL..08/28/18
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 354
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-013-041-043-061-071-095-103-109-153-280340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER BARAGA DELTA
DICKINSON HOUGHTON IRON
LUCE MARQUETTE MENOMINEE
SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-015-029-037-061-071-087-097-115-135-137-139-141-280340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALUMET DOOR
FLORENCE KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC
OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE SHAWANO
WAUPACA WAUSHARA WINNEBAGO
WOOD
$$
LMZ221-248-250-261-521-522-541-542-543-563-565-567-LSZ244-245-246-
247-248-249-250-251-265-266-267-280340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI
TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI
POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI
PORTAGE LAKE TO HURON ISLAND MI TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE
CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS
HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI
MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI
GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE
LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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