Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
825 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 825 AM
UNTIL 400 PM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TODAY
WHILE SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF A COUPLE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
CRESTVIEW FLORIDA TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MONTGOMERY
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 551...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 552 TORNADO AL FL CW 181425Z - 182200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35SSE CEW/CRESTVIEW FL/ - 30NNE MGM/MONTGOMERY AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /37SSE CEW - 29NNE MGM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
LAT...LON 30308747 32688741 32688500 30308512
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 552 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 552
VALID 182035Z - 182140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S PNS TO
20 WNW TOI TO 15 NNW AUO.
..BROYLES..11/18/15
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 552
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC005-011-039-041-081-087-109-113-182140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BULLOCK COVINGTON
CRENSHAW LEE MACON
PIKE RUSSELL
$$
FLC091-182140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
OKALOOSA
$$
GMZ635-655-182140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 552
VALID 181840Z - 181940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..11/18/15
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 552
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-011-013-031-035-039-041-045-047-051-053-061-067-069-
081-085-087-099-101-105-109-113-131-181940-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK
BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA
GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY
PIKE RUSSELL WILCOX
$$
FLC005-013-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-181940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN GULF
HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GMZ633-635-655-750-181940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PERDIDO BAY AREA
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 552
VALID 181730Z - 181840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980
..COOK..11/18/15
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 552
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-005-011-013-031-035-039-041-045-047-051-053-061-067-069-
081-085-087-099-101-105-109-113-131-181840-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK
BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH
COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE
DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA
GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON
LEE LOWNDES MACON
MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY
PIKE RUSSELL WILCOX
$$
FLC005-013-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-181840-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN GULF
HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA
SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
GMZ633-635-655-750-181840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PERDIDO BAY AREA
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.