Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
835 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
EAST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 835 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS ONGOING OVER NORTHEAST SD IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A LINE OF STORMS WHICH WILL TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO AND DURING THIS TRANSITION
WITH DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD THEREAFTER.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF ORTONVILLE MINNESOTA TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF REDWOOD
FALLS MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430...WW 431...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 432 SEVERE TSTM MN SD 180135Z - 180700Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
10SSW VVV/ORTONVILLE MN/ - 45ESE RWF/REDWOOD FALLS MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM EITHER SIDE /72NW RWF - 40ESE RWF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29030.
LAT...LON 45779616 44909391 43689455 44569683
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 432 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 432
VALID 180640Z - 180700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BKX TO
15 WNW RWF TO 40 SW STC.
WW 432 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180700Z.
..MARSH..07/18/15
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC003-013-015-019-037-049-053-079-085-093-103-123-127-129-131-
139-141-143-145-147-161-163-165-171-180700-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN
CARVER DAKOTA GOODHUE
HENNEPIN LE SUEUR MCLEOD
MEEKER NICOLLET RAMSEY
REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE
SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY
STEARNS STEELE WASECA
WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 432
VALID 180530Z - 180640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BKX TO
15 WNW RWF TO 40 SW STC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458.
..MARSH..07/18/15
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC003-013-015-019-037-049-053-079-081-083-085-093-103-123-127-
129-131-139-141-143-145-147-161-163-165-171-180640-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN
CARVER DAKOTA GOODHUE
HENNEPIN LE SUEUR LINCOLN
LYON MCLEOD MEEKER
NICOLLET RAMSEY REDWOOD
RENVILLE RICE SCOTT
SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEARNS
STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON
WATONWAN WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 432
VALID 180325Z - 180440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ATY
TO 20 ESE VVV TO 15 SW AXN.
..BROYLES..07/18/15
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC015-023-067-073-081-083-085-093-103-121-127-129-143-151-173-
180440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CHIPPEWA KANDIYOHI
LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON
MCLEOD MEEKER NICOLLET
POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE
SIBLEY SWIFT YELLOW MEDICINE
$$
SDC011-180440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKINGS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 432
VALID 180230Z - 180340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COOK..07/18/15
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC015-023-067-073-081-083-085-093-103-121-127-129-143-149-151-
173-180340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CHIPPEWA KANDIYOHI
LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON
MCLEOD MEEKER NICOLLET
POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE
SIBLEY STEVENS SWIFT
YELLOW MEDICINE
$$
SDC011-180340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKINGS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.