Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1015 PM
UNTIL 500 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THIS REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ENCOUNTER
FAVORABLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. PARTS OF THIS WATCH AREA MAY
EXPERIENCE A WELL-ORGANIZED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT AS ONE OR TWO STORM
CLUSTERS GROW AND ORGANIZE UPSCALE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF FORT CAMPBELL KENTUCKY TO 55 MILES EAST OF DAYTON OHIO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 413...WW 414...WW
415...WW 416...WW 417...WW 418...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30035.
...EDWARDS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 419 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY OH 140215Z - 140900Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
70WNW HOP/FORT CAMPBELL KY/ - 55E DAY/DAYTON OH/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM EITHER SIDE /68SW PXV - 31WSW APE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30035.
LAT...LON 37888919 40728373 39048263 36208812
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 419 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 419
VALID 140435Z - 140540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW CKV TO
40 SE MVN TO 45 E SLO.
..ROGERS..07/14/15
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...ILN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC047-059-069-185-193-140540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDWARDS GALLATIN HARDIN
WABASH WHITE
$$
INC019-025-029-037-041-043-047-051-061-077-115-117-123-125-129-
137-143-147-155-161-163-173-175-177-140540-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CRAWFORD DEARBORN
DUBOIS FAYETTE FLOYD
FRANKLIN GIBSON HARRISON
JEFFERSON OHIO ORANGE
PERRY PIKE POSEY
RIPLEY SCOTT SPENCER
SWITZERLAND UNION VANDERBURGH
WARRICK WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
KYC005-015-017-023-027-029-031-033-037-041-055-059-067-073-077-
081-085-091-093-097-101-103-107-111-113-117-123-135-149-161-163-
167-177-179-181-183-185-187-191-201-209-211-215-223-225-229-233-
239-140540-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BOONE BOURBON
BRACKEN BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT
BUTLER CALDWELL CAMPBELL
CARROLL CRITTENDEN DAVIESS
FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN
GRANT GRAYSON HANCOCK
HARDIN HARRISON HENDERSON
HENRY HOPKINS JEFFERSON
JESSAMINE KENTON LARUE
LEWIS MCLEAN MASON
MEADE MERCER MUHLENBERG
NELSON NICHOLAS OHIO
OLDHAM OWEN PENDLETON
ROBERTSON SCOTT SHELBY
SPENCER TRIMBLE UNION
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WOODFORD
$$
OHC001-015-017-021-023-025-027-037-047-057-061-065-071-091-097-
109-113-129-131-135-141-145-149-159-165-140540-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN BUTLER
CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLERMONT
CLINTON DARKE FAYETTE
GREENE HAMILTON HARDIN
HIGHLAND LOGAN MADISON
MIAMI MONTGOMERY PICKAWAY
PIKE PREBLE ROSS
SCIOTO SHELBY UNION
WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.