Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EXTREME WESTERN WISCONSIN
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 520 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...COMBINATION OF:
1. EXISTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF SPC WATCH
405 AND
2. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INITIAL THREAT OF SUPERCELLS FROM
THOSE AREAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. DAMAGING HAIL...SEVERE GUSTS
AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD MERGE
AND GROW INTO A LARGE BOWING COMPLEX...OFFERING MAINLY DAMAGING
WIND...WITH SOME GUSTS LOCALLY REACHING HURRICANE FORCE. SUCH
STORMS STILL MAY POSE A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL AS ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL...AS THEY CROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EVENTUALLY
PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
ALEXANDRIA MINNESOTA TO 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROCHESTER
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 405...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
650. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030.
...EDWARDS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 406 TORNADO IA MN SD WI 122220Z - 130600Z
AXIS..120 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
15NNE AXN/ALEXANDRIA MN/ - 60SW RST/ROCHESTER MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 105NM EITHER SIDE /55WSW BRD - 13N MCW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 650. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030.
LAT...LON 47069319 44299137 42279526 45049727
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 406 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 406
VALID 130050Z - 130140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BKX TO
15 SW VVV TO 40 NNW VVV.
..ROGERS..07/13/15
ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...DLH...MPX...ABR...ARX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-025-033-035-041-059-063-081-091-093-109-119-141-143-147-
149-151-161-167-189-195-130140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CERRO GORDO
CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON
EMMET HANCOCK HUMBOLDT
IDA KOSSUTH LYON
O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO
PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS SAC
SIOUX WINNEBAGO WORTH
$$
MNC001-003-009-011-013-015-019-021-023-025-033-035-037-039-041-
043-047-049-053-059-063-065-067-073-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-
097-099-101-103-105-109-115-117-121-123-127-129-131-133-139-141-
143-145-147-149-151-153-155-157-161-163-165-171-173-130140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN ANOKA BENTON
BIG STONE BLUE EARTH BROWN
CARVER CASS CHIPPEWA
CHISAGO COTTONWOOD CROW WING
DAKOTA DODGE DOUGLAS
FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE
HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON
KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE
LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON
MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER
MILLE LACS MORRISON MOWER
MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES
OLMSTED PINE PIPESTONE
POPE RAMSEY REDWOOD
RENVILLE RICE ROCK
SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY
STEARNS STEELE STEVENS
SWIFT TODD TRAVERSE
WABASHA WASECA WASHINGTON
WATONWAN WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE
$$
SDC011-039-130140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKINGS DEUEL
$$
WIC011-013-033-091-093-095-109-130140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUFFALO BURNETT DUNN
PEPIN PIERCE POLK
ST. CROIX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 406
VALID 122345Z - 130040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BKX TO
10 ENE ATY TO 50 NNW VVV.
..ROGERS..07/12/15
ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...DLH...MPX...ABR...ARX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-025-033-035-041-059-063-081-091-093-109-119-141-143-147-
149-151-161-167-189-195-130040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CERRO GORDO
CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON
EMMET HANCOCK HUMBOLDT
IDA KOSSUTH LYON
O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO
PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS SAC
SIOUX WINNEBAGO WORTH
$$
MNC001-003-009-011-013-015-019-021-023-025-033-035-037-039-041-
043-047-049-053-059-063-065-067-073-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-
097-099-101-103-105-109-115-117-121-123-127-129-131-133-139-141-
143-145-147-149-151-153-155-157-161-163-165-171-173-130040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN ANOKA BENTON
BIG STONE BLUE EARTH BROWN
CARVER CASS CHIPPEWA
CHISAGO COTTONWOOD CROW WING
DAKOTA DODGE DOUGLAS
FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE
HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON
KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE
LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON
MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER
MILLE LACS MORRISON MOWER
MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES
OLMSTED PINE PIPESTONE
POPE RAMSEY REDWOOD
RENVILLE RICE ROCK
SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY
STEARNS STEELE STEVENS
SWIFT TODD TRAVERSE
WABASHA WASECA WASHINGTON
WATONWAN WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE
$$
SDC011-039-051-079-099-101-130040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKINGS DEUEL GRANT
LAKE MINNEHAHA MOODY
$$
WIC011-013-033-091-093-095-109-130040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUFFALO BURNETT DUNN
PEPIN PIERCE POLK
ST. CROIX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.