Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 505 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
MST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS NOW FORMING IN NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO...OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SE AZ...AND OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM...EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO STORM CLUSTERS LATER
THIS EVENING. THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AND WILL
BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...BLOWING DUST...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
HAIL.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF
PHOENIX ARIZONA TO 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON ARIZONA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 371...WW 372...WW
373...WW 374...WW 375...WW 377...WW 378...WW 379...WW 380...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 08030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 381 SEVERE TSTM AZ 010005Z - 010700Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55N PHX/PHOENIX AZ/ - 65SW TUS/TUCSON AZ/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /36SE DRK - 57SW TUS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 08030.
LAT...LON 34221052 31431029 31431316 34221351
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 381 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 381
VALID 010425Z - 010540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/01/15
ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
AZC007-013-019-021-010540-
AZ
. ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GILA MARICOPA PIMA
PINAL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 381
VALID 010335Z - 010440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/01/15
ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
AZC007-013-019-021-010440-
AZ
. ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GILA MARICOPA PIMA
PINAL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 381
VALID 010230Z - 010340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/01/15
ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
AZC007-013-019-021-010340-
AZ
. ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GILA MARICOPA PIMA
PINAL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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