Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 48
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE ERIE
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY EVENING FROM 710 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF ANN ARBOR
MICHIGAN TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT CLEMENS MICHIGAN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39...WW 40...WW 41...WW
42...WW 43...WW 44...WW 45...WW 46...WW 47...
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SMALL SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE
WARM FRONT OVER LOWER MI. STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FROM THESE STORMS THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 48 TORNADO MI LE 092310Z - 100300Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25W ARB/ANN ARBOR MI/ - 20S MTC/MOUNT CLEMENS MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /39W DXO - 25ENE DXO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 42798423 42888283 41728283 41638423
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 48 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
