Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 31
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL...WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 640 AM
UNTIL 100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI TO 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS IN LOOSE MERIDIONAL BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS FAVORABLE ELEVATED CAPE/SHEAR
PARAMETER SPACE ON EITHER SIDE OF SFC FRONT FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE
HOURS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 225 FOR NEAR-TERM
METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...EDWARDS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 31 SEVERE TSTM MO 081140Z - 081800Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50WSW TBN/FORT LEONARD WOOD MO/ - 45NW IRK/KIRKSVILLE MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /18ENE SGF - 36NW IRK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 37459443 40549468 40549162 37459151
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 31 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 31
VALID 081530Z - 081640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE SGF TO
40 S SZL TO 35 NNW SZL TO 5 SSW LWD.
..GRAMS..04/08/15
ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC001-007-015-019-027-029-033-041-051-053-059-073-079-085-089-
103-105-111-115-117-121-125-127-129-131-135-137-139-141-151-159-
161-169-171-173-175-195-197-205-211-081640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR AUDRAIN BENTON
BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN
CARROLL CHARITON COLE
COOPER DALLAS GASCONADE
GRUNDY HICKORY HOWARD
KNOX LACLEDE LEWIS
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MARIES MARION MERCER
MILLER MONITEAU MONROE
MONTGOMERY MORGAN OSAGE
PETTIS PHELPS PULASKI
PUTNAM RALLS RANDOLPH
SALINE SCHUYLER SHELBY
SULLIVAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 31
VALID 081430Z - 081540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SGF TO
35 SSW SZL TO 30 NW SZL TO 10 ESE STJ.
..MOSIER..04/08/15
ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC001-007-015-019-025-027-029-033-041-049-051-053-059-061-063-
073-075-079-081-083-085-089-101-103-105-107-111-115-117-121-125-
127-129-131-135-137-139-141-151-159-161-167-169-171-173-175-177-
185-195-197-205-211-081540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR AUDRAIN BENTON
BOONE CALDWELL CALLAWAY
CAMDEN CARROLL CHARITON
CLINTON COLE COOPER
DALLAS DAVIESS DEKALB
GASCONADE GENTRY GRUNDY
HARRISON HENRY HICKORY
HOWARD JOHNSON KNOX
LACLEDE LAFAYETTE LEWIS
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MARIES MARION MERCER
MILLER MONITEAU MONROE
MONTGOMERY MORGAN OSAGE
PETTIS PHELPS POLK
PULASKI PUTNAM RALLS
RANDOLPH RAY ST. CLAIR
SALINE SCHUYLER SHELBY
SULLIVAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.