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Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614
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WW0614 Radar
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Low
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High Moderate

Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
   SEL4
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 614
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   330 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          NORTHEAST IOWA
          FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
          WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
          SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
          LAKE SUPERIOR
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
   1100 PM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST
   NORTHEAST OF ELY MINNESOTA TO 35 MILES WEST OF DUBUQUE IOWA.  FOR
   A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...TCU/TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM IN AN ARC FROM NERN MN
   SWD THROUGH FAR WRN WI INTO SE MN/NE IA...ALONG AN AXIS OF WEAK
   LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN MODERATE WLY
   MID/UPR-LVL FLOW. DEEP EML SAMPLED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM FROM
   REGION...RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
   LARGE HAIL GIVEN 35-45 KT WLY DEEP SHEAR/LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS.
   THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS CONTAINING E OR
   SE-MOVING BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY
   BACK-BUILDING SEGMENTS...WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR HAIL/DMGG WIND.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 27030.
   
   
   ...CORFIDI
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